Three Weeks is a Long Time in Rugby League

Indeed, in the world of Gaw's Rant just three short weeks ago, the Dragons had the minor premiership sewn up, the Cowboys were a finals certainty and Brisbane and Newcastle were gone.

How quickly things change.

St George have lost three in a row to surrender their lead on the minor premiership. Their alarming form slump has come at the worst possible time of the season and a loss this Friday could see them drop to third. North Queensland have fared worse. The Cowboys are now out of contention altogether after losing five of their last six.

In the meantime, the Broncos, who seemed gone for 2009 just three weeks ago, are enjoying a red hot winning streak and could finish as high as fourth if the Storm and Sea Eagles both go down in the final round.

One team I was right about are the Eels. Currently sitting in seventh place, they could also leapfrog Melbourne and Manly into fourth if results go their way. I get the impression however that Parramatta don't really mind if they get the home ground advantage in week one or not. They are brimming with confidence and are ready to take on any team, anywhere.

The race for the NRL premiership has never been more wide open.

St George's misfortunes have seen a resurgent Bulldogs claim top spot on the ladder however a potentially season-ending injury to chief playmaker Brett Kimmorley has the potential to make life difficult for the Blue and Whites.

And indeed the Dragons, whilst having lost three in a row do have the personnel to turn things around at any time. They face a huge game against Parramatta this Friday, the result of which will say much about how September football is going to play out.

With four wins in a row the Gold Coast Titans are well placed to challenge for their first title. A win against Manly at Brookvale this Saturday will do wonders for their finals confidence and could even see them finish in second place if the Dragons go down.

Melbourne have class all over the park despite not having really shifted into top gear yet this season. But if they're ever going to then finals time is when they'll do it.

Manly have booked their finals spot but have much work to do. They have the players to make an impact, having also welcomed fullback Brett Stewart back into their lineup.

The Broncos are one team to watch. At the beginning of the year I said they will be a finals force and I should never have doubted them.

Parramatta are the dark horse. In scintillating form, they will press for a grand final berth from wherever they finish in the eight.

Finally, the Knights have done well to keep in touch with the top eight however even if they win next week and book their place in the finals, I don't think they have the firepower to match it with the best and go all the way. Similarly, Penrith are not out of it yet but anything they've achieved this year is a bonus.

Having said all that, I was just as confident when I made my predictions three weeks ago. It will be interesting in three weeks time to see where I was right and wrong. The great game of Rugby League can be unpredictable sometimes, but that's what makes it such a spectacle.

Here Lies Australian Sporting Pride...

Australian sporting pride died last weekend.

Firstly, the Wallabies were pipped at the post by a New Zealand team who deserved a scoreboard more fitting of their superior performance. Then the Australian cricketers failed at The Oval, giving England their second series win in four years and making Ricky Ponting the first Australian captain to lose two series in England since the 19th century.

As a member of a generation brought up on national sporting triumphs, it's not an easy pill to take. Our teams have been down before, but always found a way back. They fought tooth and nail to be the best, and most of the time they succeeded.

Make no mistake, we are in a crisis.

For the Wallabies this is not new. Our national rugby team have been struggling for the better part of this decade after the the high of 1999's World Cup Triumph and settling for runners-up four years later. A changing of the guard has seen old stars retire and new players step up. The Robbie Deans era started well enough, with the Wallabies' performances last year showing some promise of what could be with a little hard work and determination.

This year that promise remains unfulfilled. The scoreboard on Saturday night actually flattered us - with the only try of the night coming from New Zealand, the All Blacks would have been right to be upset if a tryless team had beaten them. The rugby gods did the right thing in granting the late penalty that sealed their victory.

Meanwhile over in England, Australia's woeful performance in the fifth test had cricket fans in a deja-vu spin recalling the loss in 2005. Set a mammoth 2nd innings total, we were never in it, and the efforts of some of our players needs to be seriously questioned.

Those who read my blog entry after the Lords test will remember me saying how the seeds of that loss were sown when we were unable to seal the deal in Cardiff. Unfortunately the impact of those seeds lingered longer still - had we been able to take one final tail wicket back then Australia would have retained the Ashes, and probably would have done so in style.

What happens now? The media will dissect the failures of our cricket players, the issue of the Australian captaincy will again be the subject of discussion and the team will try to pick up the pieces in time to hopefully be competitive for the domestic summer.

As for the Wallabies, with their Bledisloe and Tri-Nations dream over for another year, their focus will again be on attempting to salvage some pride during the remainder of the international season. This position must be beginning to feel a little too familiar for them.

Australian sporting pride - Rest in peace.

The Race to the NRL Finals Heats Up

In what is turning into a showcase season (on the field) for the NRL, we are now only four weeks out from the finals with 12 teams still fighting it out for a spot in the eight. Is your club among them? Read on...

Positions one and two are all but sewn up. The Dragons have far and away been the competition's leading side in 2009. Sitting two wins clear and with a superior for-and-against differential than the second-placed Dogs, the red and whites would have to lose three from four to surrender the minor premiership, and will be the team to beat in September.

Despite a recent patch of worrying form the Bulldogs seem to have second place wrapped up, needing only two wins to stay put. But they will need to address some issues that have seen them lose to Parramatta and struggle against the Rabbitohs and Raiders in recent weeks if their finals campaign is to start on the right foot.

Three and four are where it starts to get interesting. Sitting on 30 points, the Gold Coast Titans have been doing the right things week in, week out and have everyone talking about how no one's talking about them. However the Melbourne Storm are only a point behind and still have plenty of firepower in their ranks to create something special.

Out of the top four there is a logjam for the remaining spots with only three points separating fifth from twelfth. Penrith are in at fifth on 25 points, the Cowboys, Tigers, Sea Eagles and Knights are all level on 24 while the Rabbitohs, resurgent Eels and the Brisbane Broncos are all on 22.

Alas eight into four goes not... so we can expect some fascinating footy over the next few weeks. The Panthers have surprised everyone with their form in 2009 but face up against four other teams all vying for a finals spot. North Queensland are starting to show glimpses of their potentially devastating attack potential with the Bowen-Thurston combination again the talk of Townsville. I expect them to be there come finals time.

The Tigers find themselves in finals contention at the right end of the year for the first time since their shock 2005 premiership win. However a difficult run home that includes matches against the Eels, Titans and Bulldogs means they have their work cut out for them.

Manly currently round out the eight and should account for the Roosters and Sharks in games against those teams, however also face the Storm and Titans in the next few weeks. The defending premiers' season will go down to the wire.

The Knights horror few weeks has seen them drop to ninth spot. The bad news is they face the Storm and Cowboys, plus the Raiders in Canberra over the next month. With their coach watching his calendar and the team lacking direction, I don't see them reinstating themselves in the top eight.

Nipping at the heels of the top eight, both South Sydney and Parramatta are playing good football at the right end of the year. The Eels have the potential to be a finals dark horse but have to get through the Tigers, Panthers and high flying Dragons first. The Bunnies have the Titans, Panthers and Dragons in their way and may have left their 2009 resurgence a little too late.

Lastly, the Broncos sit twelfth and are a mathematical chance, but face top eight sides in the Panthers, Dragons and Cowboys, followed by a rematch with the Canberra outfit that embarrassed them the other week. It would seem that for the first time in many years, Brisbane are not going to be playing September football.

Hence my top eight prediction is:

1. Dragons
2. Bulldogs
3. Storm
4. Titans
5. Cowboys
6. Sea Eagles
7. Tigers
8. Eels