NRL 2009! It's one week away. The triumph and heartache. The big hits. The runaway tries. The epic battles. The race to be the best. How will your team fare in the coming season? Here are my predictions, warts and all, for the coming rugby league year. Let the battles begin!
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
The only factor standing between the Sea Eagles and back to back premierships is unfortunately a huge one – history. Not since Brisbane in 1992-93 has a team achieved the feat. Manly are certainly in a good position to buck the trend; their premiership winning team is mostly intact, having lost the Beaver, Steve Bell and Luke Williamson but picking up the handy talents of Chris Bailey and Tony Williams. However it will be important for Des Hasler's team to focus entirely on 2009 – It is a new year and last season's glories need to pushed aside and the team focussed on winning games week by week. If they do that the potential is certainly there for the Sea Eagles to be smiling once again come October.
North Queensland Cowboys
Last year I was bang on when I said injuries to either Jonathan Thurston or Matty Bowen would spell disaster for North Queensland. They have disappointed repeatedly ever since their sole grand final appearance in '05 and I don't expect this year to be any different. Some good buys in key positions will help their performances this year, as will a new coach in Neil Henry but I still shake my head whenever I read a so called "expert" rating them as a top four chance. With a light injury toll the top eight is possible but if either Thurston or Bowen goes, so will the Cowboys' chances.
Cronulla Sharks
Cronulla enjoyed a much improved year in 2008 compared to the previous season. This year however is uncertain; while they have bought impressively in the forwards, adding the likes of Reni Maitua, Anthony Tupou and Corey Hughes to their ranks, they have lost a huge amount of experience in Brett Kimmorley, who enjoyed one of his best seasons last year. Trent Barrett returns from England to fill the void but let's face it – he is as overrated as I used to say Kimmorley was until his fantastic season last year. The Sharks should make the eight but that elusive premiership their fans have been wishing for will remain so a while longer.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
After a fairytale season in 2007, last year Souths returned to being... well, Souths. It was the bad old days again for many Rabbitohs fans as the team stumbled, sputtered and fell short of the eight. Some promising signs did occur in the second half of the year with rookie Chris Sandow impressing in the number seven jumper, corresponding with some red and green victories; if the Bunnies can get on a roll like that in 2009 and keep it going, they should enjoy a better year. A premiership is still quite a few years away, but a top eight finish is not impossible.
Parramatta Eels
Touted as contenders at the start of last year, the Eels endured a disappointing season. Their woes around Tim Smith certainly would not have helped; this year they've had some time to adjust and a new coach in Daniel Anderson. The Parramatta lineup is still star studded with names like Jarryd Hayne, Krisnan Inu, Feleti Mateo and the ever-working Nathan Hindmarsh; leaving no excuses if they don't redeem themselves somewhat in 2009. If the team can display the same dedication their long-suffering fans have done since the mid 80s, then the end of the regular season should see them in the finals mix.
Sydney Roosters
All the buys in the world last year and the Roosters realised that the one thing a chequebook cannot buy is a guaranteed premiership. This year they are without Anthony Tupou and Amos Roberts, and have not bought anyone new of note to fill those voids. One must also wonder why, after Braith Anasta finally played a season deserving of his hype in the number six jumper, coach Brad Fittler is talking of switching him to lock this year. Let's hope he does, because I for one want to see the Roosters losing week in, week out and crashing out of the title race. Realistically they should still squeeze into the eight. That's the nicest I'm going to be.
Wests Tigers
The Tigers surprised everyone in 2005 when they won the title. Many thought it was premature. Nobody at the time could have known how premature. While sometimes brilliant in attack, Wests' main problem is their lack of a structured game; something former halfback Scott Prince took with him to the Gold Coast. At times the Tigers are beautiful to watch with the ball; at other times plain frustrating. Benji Marshall's battered body is again a factor this year with their chances too closely tied to how many consecutive weeks he can give at a time. Robbie Farah is world class out of dummy half, but until the Tigers can find a safe and reliable game controller, they're destined to keep ending up disappointed in September.
Canterbury Bulldogs
The only way is up. 2008 was a forgettable year for the Dogs. It is widely agreed that they have been the smartest purchasers this year and that should translate into on-field success. Morris will add fire in the centres, Brett Kimmorley will add structure and a much needed kicking game, while up front the former Bronco trio of David Stagg, Ben Hannant and Michael Ennis will once again make the Dogs forward pack one to be feared. Add the returning Luke Patten to the mix along with youngsters Jamal Idris, Ben Barba and Heka Nanai. The superboot of Hazem El Masri and the leadership of the evergreen sportsman Andrew Ryan round up a Dogs lineup that is hungry, skilled and ready to win the big games. A return to the Dogs' rightful place in the top eight is imminent.
Gold Coast Titans
Everyone's second favourite team has for two years running been in a strong position mid-season before crashing out of top eight contention. Their on-paper lineup is a finals football team with world class players such as Preston Campbell, Scott Prince, Anthony Laffranchi and Luke Bailey. The factor that rugby league conversations across the nation agree on however is the Titans' lack of depth, something that will again be a factor this season. Gold Coast deserve to be in the finals. Whether they make it there or not will again, unfortunately, be at the mercy of their injury toll.
St George Dragons
The red and whites have lost Mark Gasnier, Josh Morris and Jason Ryles but picked up supercoach Wayne Bennett. They've also gained some handy experience in new signings Luke Priddis, Jeremy Smith and the returning Matthew Head. Last year the Dragons impressed with a finals finish no one had tipped; in 2009 a return to Kogarah along with a new regime should see them there again. To be realistic they won't progress much further though.
Penrith Panthers
It's been six long years since the glories of 2003 and some out Penrith way must be wondering if they'll ever taste it again. Sorry guys but not this year and not in the foreseeable future. Penrith have lost too much experience from a side that failed last season anyway. Their coach is a self-confessed "dead man walking", their halves have barely a season of game experience between them and no one of note has been brought on board to make an impact in 2009. Matthew Elliott will be the first coach to go this year and unfortunately for Panthers fans, Penrith will finish with, or near the spoon.
Canberra Raiders
Every year it's the same story. The Raiders are gone before a ball is even kicked, they say. They've lost too many experienced players, they say. Wooden spoon certainties, they say. Every year they are wrong. The Green Machine don't tend to listen to "they" or anyone else but their own self-belief. And that belief got them into the top eight last year. Having said all that, there have been quite a few departures in the off-season. But if the talented Terry Campese repeats his 2008 form in the number six, the Raiders will be very dangerous indeed. Classy winger Joel Monaghan will too be ready to fire after his international duties at the end of last year. Where Canberra finish this season will be up to them.
Brisbane Broncos
The Broncos have lost a wealth of talent in the off season. Their coach since their induction into the top league has also now departed, a rookie taking his place. This would suggest that 2009 may be a difficult year. Two factors however will ensure that Brisbane will go well this season. Factor one is Israel Folau. The big, classy centre still has his best football ahead of him, and you can expect to see him step up even another notch within the freedom of the Broncos backs. Second point. This is Brisbane. When have they ever had a bad year? They still have Darren Lockyer anchoring the team, Thaiday up front and look for Peter Wallace to build on his impressive displays last year – after all, he has an origin jumper to play for. Once again the Broncos will be top eight.
New Zealand Warriors
Always the difficult side to pick. The Warriors have for the last few seasons shown glimpses of greatness interspersed with plain dumb losses and losing runs. 2008 saw them begin to develop a sense of consistency; if they can carry this into this year then a very successful season could be imminent. The return of Stacey Jones will ignite a Warriors team that has always been brimming with talent but as yet unable to fully realise it, and while elder statesman Ruben Wiki will be missed, young guns Joel Moon and Liam Foran will add a new exciting dimension to the Warriors attack. A good start to the year is essential however if New Zealand truly want to make their mark on 2009.
Melbourne Storm
All good things must come to an end. Melbourne's three years of NRL dominance came to a crashing half in last season's decider when they were convincingly, thoroughly and embarrassingly routed by the rising Manly Sea Eagles. It is the natural order of things; you cannot stay at the top forever particularly when the salary cap starts to bite and the talent starts to bleed. Israel Folau, Mick Crocker and club legend Matt Geyer are gone for 2009 but the Storm do still have some of the best on their books so will by no means fail this year; on the contrary, being the ones chasing the title rather than defending it may again invigorate them. They still have arguably the best coach in the game and the ability to turn unknown Queensland juniors into superstars – so write Melbourne off at your peril.
Newcastle Knights
After spending 2008 in a rebuilding phase the Knights will hope to string a few more wins together this season and challenge for the eight. The departure of Danny Buderus leaves not much of the old guard left. This spells a potentially exciting few years to come at the club, however this year I believe they are still too fresh, too green and too inexperienced to be a threat. Much of their prospects will also hinge on Jarrod Mullen. After an impressive 2007 he will want to forget a 2008 which was spent largely on the sidelines as he attempts to fight his way back into a Blues jumper. You can however expect the exciting Kurt Gidley to have another fantastic year, but his talents and performances alone will not be enough for the Knights to emerge victorious in this particular battle.
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