NSW still don't have the team to beat Queensland

The NSW State of Origin team was announced Monday night, and by and large it was more of the same from star-struck selectors who value names from yesteryear over bona-fide form and talent.

There were a few positive changes to the the team - Matt Cooper (who should never have been omitted last year) is back, while the selectors have stuck to the half-hooker combination who were part of the winning team in game 3 last year.

But again, our esteemed selectors have decided to pick the players and then find a spot to fit them in. We have a team with two fullbacks, the better one shifted to the wing. We have a centre playing at five-eighth. What happened to picking the best players in their position?

Timana Tahu may yet succumb to injury, shifting Jamie Lyon back to the centres. But then - yawn - in comes yesterday's man Trent Barrett, whose club side remains anchored to the bottom of the ladder (not counting Melbourne). If he can't inspire the Sharks to a win, what job is he going to do for NSW?

Michael Jennings, arguably the most electrifying centre in the game right now, has missed out completely. Against a Queensland side bursting with freakish attacking talent, we need all the offensive firepower we can get. Why was he overlooked?

Kudos goes to Jamal Idris for his selection on the bench, however (and this from a Bulldogs fan) I would have selected Jennings first. Idris is talented and will be a great, but Jennings has been there already. He's proven what he can do at state level.

Lastly, they say Origin is all about heart, but the player with probably the most amount of it in the NRL, Nathan Hindmarsh, has again been overlooked.

I'm usually the type of person who hates to be wrong. But come next Wednesday night, I hope I am.

A Storm of Controversy

Rugby League's Melbourne expansion experiment is dead.

Once again our great game is making headlines for all the wrong reasons, only this time it's the biggest controversy since the Bulldogs salary cap saga of 2002.

The Melbourne Storm, previously labelled the "Team of the decade" and on their way to establishing a bona-fide dynasty after being premiership favourites again this year, have been exposed to have been rorting the salary cap by $1.7 million over the last five years.

The 2007 and 2009 premierships are now void, and the club has lost the right to accumulate points from games won this season. The club faces a $500,000 fine on top of the $1.1 million in prize money it now has to return.

The Storm are accused of keeping separate books to conceal the extra payments that helped them hold their team of superstars for so long. The question of "how do Melbourne have such a great group of players?" has been answered.

In Melbourne today club chairman Rod Moodie has admitted the club may fold after sponsors have began deserting the Storm in droves. But the Storm's problems go deeper than that. Owners News Limited can keep throwing cash at the embattled club but the reality is that the die-hard AFL people of Melbourne - already fickle when it comes to our game - will share our disgust at the team and turn their heads back to their own game, ending their brief, minor and fleeting interest in Rugby League.

And once the other 15 NRL clubs pick apart the corpse of the Storm there will be no top players left to win games anyway, even next year when the victories might mean something.

Interestingly, many have suggested to me that as a Bulldogs fan I should be pleased about seeing this happen to the Storm after the trials and tribulations I went through as a fan in 2oo2. But I take no joy from what has happened. It is a blight on our game and a slap in the face to many of the punters who had begun to trust Rugby League again.

Even more disgusting (if true) are comments supposedly made by former Storm CEO Brian Waldron, who is alleged to have said of salary cap cheating, "Everybody does it ... if we want to be competitive, we have to do it." Such arrogance pours more salt into the wounds of the rugby league faithful.

My thoughts go out to Melbourne's fans - those who thought they had something special to call their own, a Rugby League team in AFL dominated Melbourne. My thoughts go out to the players who put their heart and soul into every minute they played over the last five years. It seems it was all for nothing now.

It's cruelly unfair that those who are innocent in all this are going to suffer the most. In the meantime, Rugby League is back to square one again, with its work cut out for it to win the people over, all over again.

NRL 2010!

My yearly "NRL is back!" blog post has to be one of my favourite posts I write each year. It means that the return of the greatest game of all is around the corner... As January rolls into February, slowly we start to see more NRL related articles in the sports pages. As February draws to a close the frequency gradually increases until there is page after glorious page of Rugby League news, previews and analysis. By March the anticipation for kickoff is exponentially high – and now here we find ourselves, just three sleeps from the first play of two thousand and ten.

I cannot wait for the action to start.

As it always is at this time of year – the big questions dominate the footy faithful. Who is going to win it this year? Who will be the most improved? Which players are set to make an impact? Which club will be the year's big surprise? The answers will be revealed over the next six and a half months, but in the meantime, here is my club-by-club analysis for season 2010. Where is your club?

Melbourne Storm

The ever-classy Melbourne stunned opposing teams with their late rally last year that culminated in them taking home the top prize. But after again shedding a host of players including Dallas Johnson, Will Chambers and Steve Turner, the pundits will be asking if the Storm can repeat the feat. You bloody bet they can. They still have the key men in the key positions and a coach that could make a footballer out of a pumpkin. History is against them in that no side since Brisbane well over a decade ago has won back-to-back titles, but somehow I think the only time the Storm are going to worry about history will be while they're busy making it. Keep an eye on their unknowns too – half of them are likely to be stars by year's end.

Newcastle Knights

Goooone! The Knights are a work in progress abandoned by the artist before he had finished. The departure of coach Brian Smith to the Roosters has left a motley group of players of various talent levels who are going to struggle as a cohesive football side. New coach Rick Stone too has his work cut out for him, particularly as the Chris Houston drug scandal rocks the club, only a few months after his mate Danny Wicks got done for a similar thing. If the Knights want to be any chance of making the eight, five-eighth Jarrod Mullen is going to have to deliver on the promise he showed back in 2007 when selected for Origin, and Kurt Gidley will need to perform at a level justifying of his hype. Sadly however, I see Newcastle being firmly entrenched in the bottom half of the ladder come September.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

When Manly won the comp in 2008, even the club itself said they had peaked earlier than expected. Now they must wondering if the whole thing was a fluke, as their fall from the top began even before one speck of dust had settled on the NRL trophy once on display at Brookvale. Scandals and poor form marred their premiership defence last year, with the team playing catch up for most of the season before being bundled out of the finals. Now without a recognised halfback with the sudden departure of Matt Orford, the team does have talent on the park but are going to need to find a very good on-field organiser very quickly if they are to make any kind of impact this year.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

After the various trials and tribulations the Sharks experienced last year, the club is lucky to even still be in the NRL. Only the Roosters finished lower on the ladder in 2009, and only on points differential. Cronulla are understandably looking for a fresh start in 2010, and have brought on board a host of new players for Ricky Stuart to try and mould into a force. A major concern however, is that while most of the club's buys are capable, solid players, none have the flair or X-factor that the club really needs to make an impact. Adding to this concern is the halves equation – the same two men will be organising the troops as last year when the side could only muster five wins. It's going to be another long season in the Shire.

Parramatta Eels

Parramatta came within a win of being the dream story of 2009. In 2010 they're looking to go one better, and are as well placed as any top team to make this a reality. Already bursting with talent including the freakish Jarryd Hayne and workhorse Nathan Hindmarsh, the Eels welcome back gifted centre Timaha Tahu while bolstering their pack with the addition of Justin Poore. The recent re-signing of prodigal five-eighth Daniel Mortimer will also give the club a huge boost, though he will have to work hard to avoid the dreaded second year syndrome that has plagued many of the gifted players in the game. If he can keep firing, the Eels are going to keep the other contenders on their toes.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The time for excuses is over. A football side with this much talent simply cannot keep underachieving. Especially with the additions of Sam Burgess and Dave Taylor up front, and names like Asotasi and Crocker beside them, the Bunnies now have the most formidable pack in the comp. Add to this their speedy try-scoring machine backline, a five-eighth pushing for Origin selection in John Sutton and 2007's Dally M Rookie of the Year Chris Sandow. As I said, a football side with this much talent simply cannot keep underachieving. I'm just sayin'.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

2008's wooden spooners came within a dodgy ref call of the minor premiership last year and fell one game shy of the Grand Final to the red hot Eels. In 2010 the mighty Doggies will be looking to go one better, and have the right players in place to make it happen. Hazem El Masri may be gone, but Steve Turner is a more than capable replacement on the wing while the side has plenty of goalkicking options in Brett Kimmorley, Mick Ennis or Bryson Goodwin. Look for the immensely talented Jamal Idris to really make his mark this year and freakish attacking whiz Ben Barba to become a regular first grader. The Dogs have premiership potential all over the park with the only worry being injury – particularly if organiser Kimmorley goes down, Canterbury's depth may be questioned.

Brisbane Broncos

Everyone is waiting for Brisbane to fail, and many see 2010 as the year for it to happen, given the side's worrying form slump before the finals last year and the departures of Dave Taylor, Karmichael Hunt and Tonie Carroll among others. I'm usually the first to warn anyone never to write off Brisbane, particularly when it seems like the chips are down, but the truth is this year I actually have no idea how they'll fare. Their line-up, while depleted, still boasts surnames like Lockyer, Hodges, Folau, Wallace and Thaiday. But Hodges won't be back from his Achilles injury for a while yet and if the brittle, ageing Darren Lockyer falls, Brisbane's depth will just be too thin.

Gold Coast Titans

The NRL's newest team may very well find themselves in a position soon where the entire state of Queensland is depending on them. While Brisbane are on the wane and the inconsistent North Queensland are no certainty to be a threat, Gold Coast have bolstered the team that made last year's finals. The biggest news in the off-season was the addition of Greg Bird in the halves, but aside from him the Titans have been busily adding to their depth. With key men in jumpers one, six, seven and nine, a classy forward pack and plenty of backline and three quarter options, making their second finals series should be a formality. Ask me again at that point how I think they'll go from there.

Wests Tigers

The biggest word on Tigers coach Tim Sheens' lips this year will be consistency. For lack of it is the only thing that has kept Wests out of September football since their 2005 premiership win. Again last year they showed just how lethal they can be in attack, with a late streak almost putting them in finals calculations before they cruelly fell short by a point. This year they'd added a host of new players to reinforce their depth, locked down superstar five-eighth Benji Marshall for the next six years and snared arguably the coup of the year by signing Lote Tuquiri. On paper the Tigers have talent falling off the sides of the page. How that talent fires in 2010 will determine whether the glory days of 2005 are revisited or whether this year ends up being another "what if".

Canberra Raiders

Every year the Raiders bleed talent. Every year their team of unknowns is written off. Every year their crop of youngsters overachieves. Then the next year they bleed talent. 2010 sees a fresh crop of players ready to take on the NRL heavyweights, but the mail this time is that this bunch of young blokes might just be the core that Canberra have needed ever since the end of their late 80s/early 90s glory days. Complementing the likes of the fresh Josh Dugan, Jarrod Croker and Justin Carney will be representative players Joel Monaghan, Tom Learoyd-Lars and David Shillington. Talented five-eighth Terry Campese and inspirational lock/hooker Alan Tongue complete a team with tremendous potential to build into something over the next few years. If they don't bleed players.

North Queensland Cowboys

The perennial under-achievers of the last five years finally go into a season without being touted as heavyweights. Relatively quiet in the player market over the off-season, their only major acquisition – Willie Mason – is a player who makes more headlines off the field than on it. If North Queensland want to achieve anything of note this season, they are going to need plenty of heart. They still have one of the best playmakers in the game in Jonathan Thurston but will be missing his partner in crime Matt Bowen early on, have several question marks around depth issues and are still without a stable five-eighth. What they do have going for them however, is that finally no one expects anything of them.

Sydney Roosters

The Roosters' crash to dead last in 2009 was a spectacular decline. Plagued by off field problems, poor discipline and a lack of footballing focus, everything that could go wrong did. The upside when it comes to 2010 is things can't get any worse. With a new coach in Brian Smith and a lot of the dead wood gone from the roster, there is an opportunity for a fresh start but it's going to take time. New recruit Todd Carney is a gifted footballer however his own discipline problems are well documented. In the forwards, Jason Ryles is a good addition to the front row but the Rooster's second row does look conspicuously underdone. Much of their fortunes this year will depend on their halves – Mitchell Pearce in particular is going to have to live up to his famous surname for the Chooks to be any finals chance.

Penrith Panthers

The Panthers showed glimpses of being a great football team last year. Their shopping list in 2010 was all about strengthening in key positions, with the result being a well-balanced side consisting of youth and experience. With veteran Petero Civoneciva leading from the front and Travis Burns now providing some structure at five-eighth, the Panthers backs will be able to concentrate on what they do best, which is provide attacking flair and score tries. This is the year for rookie halfback Luke Walsh to live up to his promise – if he's able to do that then Penrith will be a team to watch.

St George Illawarra Dragons

There's an old joke – What do the Dragons have in common with snow? Both are gone by September... and indeed last year the form team throughout the regular season crashed spectacularly out of the finals. With most of their talent intact and that lesson now learned, fans of the red V will have plenty to be hopeful for in 2010. Wendell Sailor and Justin Poore have moved on but St George still have one of the game's best wingers in Brett Morris plus State of Origin prop Michael Weyman. Speaking of Origin, Jamie Soward will be pushing hard for selection this year while centre Matt Cooper, criminally overlooked for state honours last year, will be out to prove that the selectors got it wrong. Expect the Dragons to finish in the top four, and their fans will hope for a better finals performance.

New Zealand Warriors

2009 was a wasted year across the Tasman. After a strong 2008 campaign much was expected, particularly with the return of Stacey Jones. Indifferent team form and Jones' failure to make any real impact saw the Warriors finish 14^th in a disappointing effort. In hindsight welcoming Jones back onto the fold was the wrong choice, he ended up retiring again anyway and the talented Nathan Fien was lost to St George. This year they've gone for their third halfback in as many years with Cronulla discard Brett Seymour filling the number seven jersey. Elsewhere inspirational prop Steve Price is still there and winger Manu Vatuvei will be ever dangerous on the wing, but some of New Zealand's lesser known players are going to have to step up and be counted if the team is to have much on-field success.

Thurston has earned the right

According to the back page of today's Daily Telegraph, champion halfback Jonathan Thurston has sent shock waves through the Rugby League community with his declaration that he is considering switching to the 15-man game.

The article says that "Thurtson said he didn't share the same sense of lifetime loyalty to rugby league felt by Australian captain Darren Lockyer."

He is then quoted as saying "I could easily play rugby. I watch the Wallabies and a fair bit of it and I could certainly see myself playing the game ... I have to think about what's best for me, and if playing rugby is what's best for me, I'll take that option up."

Naturally, Thurston's talk of a defection has the fans riled up. How dare he, arguably the game's number one player, walk out on the sport that has given him everything?

Well quite easily, actually.

Passions aside, let's look at the issue objectively. Yes, Rugby League has been wonderful for Thurston. It has given him a fantastic career, limitless opportunities, a generous living and the honour of representing his state and country.

But Thurston has also been wonderful for Rugby League. He has repaid his debt by entertaining the fans. He has repaid his debt by helping to ensure Dairy Farmers Stadium is packed out every fortnight. He has repaid the faith of selectors at both the state and national levels with stellar performances for Queensland and Australia. He has inspired the younger generation of kids kicking footballs in parks across the eastern states to want to follow in his footsteps.

I certainly question Thurston's wisdom in wanting to leave a sport that is going from strength to strength every year for one that is in a shambles.

Rugby Union is a mess. The national team is a constant disappointment, our Super 14 teams aren't much better and consequently attendances and revenues are down. The administration seems clueless and even the messianic return of golden-boy administrator John O'Neill has failed to stop the rot.

But if Thurston wants to go there that's his choice.

Look at the positives. The amazingly talented Scott Prince will finally be able to step out of the shadow of being Thurston's understudy and get his chance to really shine. Up in Townsville the Cowboys will have money freed up to build a team, rather than assembling ad-hoc parts around the Thurston engine - look at what the Bulldogs were able to achieve with money left over after Sonny Bill Williams' departure. And Thurston himself will enjoy the grace of bowing out of the 13-man game while still on top.

So before everyone crucifies him for speaking openly about what is on his mind in regard to the future, remember the following: Thurston has given plenty back to Rugby League. He is also being honest now instead of fleeing without notice ala Sonny Bill Williams. And like all of us, he has a future to think about. At 26 he only has another 6 or so years to set himself up for that future.

Of course I'd love for him to stay in our game. But if he chooses to go I'll thank him for the memories and wish him well.

Gaw out.

Three Weeks is a Long Time in Rugby League

Indeed, in the world of Gaw's Rant just three short weeks ago, the Dragons had the minor premiership sewn up, the Cowboys were a finals certainty and Brisbane and Newcastle were gone.

How quickly things change.

St George have lost three in a row to surrender their lead on the minor premiership. Their alarming form slump has come at the worst possible time of the season and a loss this Friday could see them drop to third. North Queensland have fared worse. The Cowboys are now out of contention altogether after losing five of their last six.

In the meantime, the Broncos, who seemed gone for 2009 just three weeks ago, are enjoying a red hot winning streak and could finish as high as fourth if the Storm and Sea Eagles both go down in the final round.

One team I was right about are the Eels. Currently sitting in seventh place, they could also leapfrog Melbourne and Manly into fourth if results go their way. I get the impression however that Parramatta don't really mind if they get the home ground advantage in week one or not. They are brimming with confidence and are ready to take on any team, anywhere.

The race for the NRL premiership has never been more wide open.

St George's misfortunes have seen a resurgent Bulldogs claim top spot on the ladder however a potentially season-ending injury to chief playmaker Brett Kimmorley has the potential to make life difficult for the Blue and Whites.

And indeed the Dragons, whilst having lost three in a row do have the personnel to turn things around at any time. They face a huge game against Parramatta this Friday, the result of which will say much about how September football is going to play out.

With four wins in a row the Gold Coast Titans are well placed to challenge for their first title. A win against Manly at Brookvale this Saturday will do wonders for their finals confidence and could even see them finish in second place if the Dragons go down.

Melbourne have class all over the park despite not having really shifted into top gear yet this season. But if they're ever going to then finals time is when they'll do it.

Manly have booked their finals spot but have much work to do. They have the players to make an impact, having also welcomed fullback Brett Stewart back into their lineup.

The Broncos are one team to watch. At the beginning of the year I said they will be a finals force and I should never have doubted them.

Parramatta are the dark horse. In scintillating form, they will press for a grand final berth from wherever they finish in the eight.

Finally, the Knights have done well to keep in touch with the top eight however even if they win next week and book their place in the finals, I don't think they have the firepower to match it with the best and go all the way. Similarly, Penrith are not out of it yet but anything they've achieved this year is a bonus.

Having said all that, I was just as confident when I made my predictions three weeks ago. It will be interesting in three weeks time to see where I was right and wrong. The great game of Rugby League can be unpredictable sometimes, but that's what makes it such a spectacle.

Here Lies Australian Sporting Pride...

Australian sporting pride died last weekend.

Firstly, the Wallabies were pipped at the post by a New Zealand team who deserved a scoreboard more fitting of their superior performance. Then the Australian cricketers failed at The Oval, giving England their second series win in four years and making Ricky Ponting the first Australian captain to lose two series in England since the 19th century.

As a member of a generation brought up on national sporting triumphs, it's not an easy pill to take. Our teams have been down before, but always found a way back. They fought tooth and nail to be the best, and most of the time they succeeded.

Make no mistake, we are in a crisis.

For the Wallabies this is not new. Our national rugby team have been struggling for the better part of this decade after the the high of 1999's World Cup Triumph and settling for runners-up four years later. A changing of the guard has seen old stars retire and new players step up. The Robbie Deans era started well enough, with the Wallabies' performances last year showing some promise of what could be with a little hard work and determination.

This year that promise remains unfulfilled. The scoreboard on Saturday night actually flattered us - with the only try of the night coming from New Zealand, the All Blacks would have been right to be upset if a tryless team had beaten them. The rugby gods did the right thing in granting the late penalty that sealed their victory.

Meanwhile over in England, Australia's woeful performance in the fifth test had cricket fans in a deja-vu spin recalling the loss in 2005. Set a mammoth 2nd innings total, we were never in it, and the efforts of some of our players needs to be seriously questioned.

Those who read my blog entry after the Lords test will remember me saying how the seeds of that loss were sown when we were unable to seal the deal in Cardiff. Unfortunately the impact of those seeds lingered longer still - had we been able to take one final tail wicket back then Australia would have retained the Ashes, and probably would have done so in style.

What happens now? The media will dissect the failures of our cricket players, the issue of the Australian captaincy will again be the subject of discussion and the team will try to pick up the pieces in time to hopefully be competitive for the domestic summer.

As for the Wallabies, with their Bledisloe and Tri-Nations dream over for another year, their focus will again be on attempting to salvage some pride during the remainder of the international season. This position must be beginning to feel a little too familiar for them.

Australian sporting pride - Rest in peace.

The Race to the NRL Finals Heats Up

In what is turning into a showcase season (on the field) for the NRL, we are now only four weeks out from the finals with 12 teams still fighting it out for a spot in the eight. Is your club among them? Read on...

Positions one and two are all but sewn up. The Dragons have far and away been the competition's leading side in 2009. Sitting two wins clear and with a superior for-and-against differential than the second-placed Dogs, the red and whites would have to lose three from four to surrender the minor premiership, and will be the team to beat in September.

Despite a recent patch of worrying form the Bulldogs seem to have second place wrapped up, needing only two wins to stay put. But they will need to address some issues that have seen them lose to Parramatta and struggle against the Rabbitohs and Raiders in recent weeks if their finals campaign is to start on the right foot.

Three and four are where it starts to get interesting. Sitting on 30 points, the Gold Coast Titans have been doing the right things week in, week out and have everyone talking about how no one's talking about them. However the Melbourne Storm are only a point behind and still have plenty of firepower in their ranks to create something special.

Out of the top four there is a logjam for the remaining spots with only three points separating fifth from twelfth. Penrith are in at fifth on 25 points, the Cowboys, Tigers, Sea Eagles and Knights are all level on 24 while the Rabbitohs, resurgent Eels and the Brisbane Broncos are all on 22.

Alas eight into four goes not... so we can expect some fascinating footy over the next few weeks. The Panthers have surprised everyone with their form in 2009 but face up against four other teams all vying for a finals spot. North Queensland are starting to show glimpses of their potentially devastating attack potential with the Bowen-Thurston combination again the talk of Townsville. I expect them to be there come finals time.

The Tigers find themselves in finals contention at the right end of the year for the first time since their shock 2005 premiership win. However a difficult run home that includes matches against the Eels, Titans and Bulldogs means they have their work cut out for them.

Manly currently round out the eight and should account for the Roosters and Sharks in games against those teams, however also face the Storm and Titans in the next few weeks. The defending premiers' season will go down to the wire.

The Knights horror few weeks has seen them drop to ninth spot. The bad news is they face the Storm and Cowboys, plus the Raiders in Canberra over the next month. With their coach watching his calendar and the team lacking direction, I don't see them reinstating themselves in the top eight.

Nipping at the heels of the top eight, both South Sydney and Parramatta are playing good football at the right end of the year. The Eels have the potential to be a finals dark horse but have to get through the Tigers, Panthers and high flying Dragons first. The Bunnies have the Titans, Panthers and Dragons in their way and may have left their 2009 resurgence a little too late.

Lastly, the Broncos sit twelfth and are a mathematical chance, but face top eight sides in the Panthers, Dragons and Cowboys, followed by a rematch with the Canberra outfit that embarrassed them the other week. It would seem that for the first time in many years, Brisbane are not going to be playing September football.

Hence my top eight prediction is:

1. Dragons
2. Bulldogs
3. Storm
4. Titans
5. Cowboys
6. Sea Eagles
7. Tigers
8. Eels